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Start of the new Solar Cycle :)

Tamitha Skov is reporting this week on a couple of regions that may indicate the start of the new solar cycle.

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Yes there was an article on Spaceweatherlive about a week ago saying the same thing, that Cycle 25 has started. Of course there’s still as many “nay-sayers” as those who agree. This would make Cycle 24 shorter than the usually accepted length but whos to say that can’t happen?

Ed.

Bear in mind that the new solar cycle always begins before the old one has finished, the overlap can be as much as two years. Look up the “Maunder’s Butterfly Diagram” on the internet to see how the behaviour of sunspots evolves through minimum.

I’m taking it for now as a good sign :wink:
Band conditions were great today - for whatever reason - 20m was cracking, S9+40 from both USA and Russian big guns.

Regards, Mark.

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I guess I need to start up my WSPR beacon again and see how well my FT-817nd is reaching the world. Hopefully, I’ll be able to hit Australia and New Zealand again. I’ve done that a time or two a few months ago, but it’s a rare thing right now.

Another NASA update on the solar intensity of the next years:

Thanks for your post, Joe @OE5JFE,
I would clic on “like” because I found the presentation from Irina Kitiashvili very interesting, but I wouldn’t clic on “like” because I honestly didn’t like the sad prediction of cycle 25 being the weakest solar cycle of the last 200 years.
I found conditions exptremely poor today, not being able to copy most of the activators spotted on SOTAwatch. Just 4 chases for me today so far. It feels like we are at the bottom of the bottom.
73,

Guru

Please don’t harm the messenger :wink:
I got the link from the head of my local club and it is not good news for us. For me as a newcomer that started in 2017 it is like: Wow it will improve a lot from now on. All a matter of starting point.

Btw. one thing that was not discussed in any ham radio news as far as I know:

The Sun follows the rhythm of the planets

https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=58444&pNid=0&pLang=en

Quote from the article:

In principle, it is not unusual for the magnetic activity of a star like the Sun to undergo cyclic oscillation. And yet past models have been unable to adequately explain the very regular cycle of the sun. The HZDR research team has now succeeded in demonstrating that the planetary tidal forces on the Sun act like an outer clock, and are the decisive factor behind its steady rhythm.

I’m wondering what mid- or long term predictions could be done including this research.

73,
Joe

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I wouldn’t bother, Joe, the idea is very old as the similarity of the Jovian “year” and the sunspot cycle was noted over a hundred years ago and the detail was well researched by harmonic analysis over fifty years ago. Predictions made at that time failed to work out and the general conclusion then was that the primary solar cycle might be regulated by the pull of Jupiter (much stronger than all the other planets put together) but there were random peturbations impacting on that regulation. Bearing in mind how many predictions about the current cycle were failures I am happy just to wait and see.