Obviously, the MT. My personal take on the application was that it was based on a run of winters that were too short and quite possibly a statistical anomaly, a blip. Anomalous runs can last for several years and then revert to what was previously normal, and it was an unusually long time since the last major El Nino. We listen to advice, we don’t always take it. In this case I suggested waiting to see if the weather pattern reverts.