I’m sat here working on a simulation of a USB mass storage device whilst watching the cluster spots. I’m watching people spotting the Z23MD DXpedition in Zimbabwe. There are plenty of spots from S. European stations on 12m & 10m and some spots from more Northern EU stations on 12m with the odd spot from LA etc. on 21m. I think the 12/10m contacts may be being helped by some TEP, And again, if I went to Z23 for radio fun, I’d being taking a b-big set of amplifiers and antennas so that will be a considerable help to them. So that says that there is 10 & 12m propagation but unlikely to benefit someone in EA8 to EU.
Looking at both VOACAP (using VOA propagation model) and Proppy (using the ITUHFprop model) suggest relative good looking probabilities of success at 25W CW into Western Europe (Spain,France, Germany,Switzerland) acceptable probabilities into England/Scotland and probabilities of success into Scandinavia and Central&Eastern Europe dropping quickly using 30-17m. Of course these are probabilities only and there could be a spell of many days when no contacts can be made.
Conditions to GM show the more Northern location having lower reliability predictions than G but 20m has a decent chance to GM and G and maybe 17/15m for a period in the early afternoon.
Reduce the distance to the hotspot of chasers in EA2 and it looks like 30/20/17 should all work and probably 15m too.
For Spain (Barcelona area) it’s even better on 30-17m (>90% chance of being S7 or better on those bands)
We shall see how well the predictions match reality, especially as there may be an active coronal hole.