It was sub-optimal in its accuracy for me as well. Forecast was for 50% cloud, then overcast then 50% cloud. The overcast never came but it was 80% cloud and was late. It was much hotter than predicted. Temps of around 9C at the summit were predicted and it was nearer 15C. The sun was damn hot when it came out.
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Weather stations are a bit sparse in VK and there are less now than 59 years ago. That doesn’t help with forecasting.
When near the summit the MK1 eyeball is good.
Snow cams are useful especially if used in conjunction with other sources.
The Aus BOM forecast is pretty good for the following day but long term not so good. I like their predicted radar rain map but it doesn’t go beyond +90 minutes.
70 years of outdoor experience helps add a pub test to various forecasts.
Looking at the ISO bar maps is something I still do for longer range forecasts.
In our alps forecasting precipitation more than a couple of hours in advance is best done with a chickens entrails.
As Fraser said the critical info is will it kill me to attempt an activation.
73
Ron
VK3AFW.
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Me, my misses, old Tom Cobley and all said the same recently. One moment you’re cold cos it’s windy and overcast. Then the sun comes out and you’re overheating. That’s supposed to happen in Oz but not in Blighty.
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I think part of the problem is we haven’t seen the sun for so long we have forgotten what it’s like sat in the sun with a gentle breeze. It has been a rubbish summer even for GM!
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Everyone’s asking, is this July going to be the wettest coolest on record. But last year (2023) will take some beating:
Lancaster University’s Hazelrigg weather station has experienced its wettest July since records began at the site in 1967. A total of 224.9 mm of rain fell during July – an amount more than 2.5 times the average of 87.3mm. This exceeds the previous wettest July at the site, recorded in 2007, by almost 40 mm. Sunshine totals were below average, but only by 13% and there have been considerably duller Julys recorded at Hazelrigg.
Apparently, the jet stream’s to blame [it’s in the wrong place].
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I’ve been surprised how dry the ground has been on some activations recently. I was in the area of the big hills in Crianlarich and there are plenty of lochs and rivers (i.e. lots of rainfall) yesterday and there had been rain, some puddles on the track but I could sit and kneel on the grass on the summit top and not get wet. Likewise recent activations of Scald Law and Beinn Dubh showed minimal surface dampness. All of which points to there hasn’t been that much rain. I think in most cases people just see a continuously grey sky with well below average temperatures and assume it’s been raining a lot.
Funny that, me, my misses, old Tom Cobley and all …
[Around here at least] It’s been raining often but usually only drizzle to light rain (and yes, overcast a lot) which probably explains why the ground’s dry or only a bit muddy.
July has, I agree, been a cold damp month, but I found June quite pleasant except for the pollen. That kept me mostly indoors for most of the month. None of the forecasters seem to cover pollen levels usefully even on a regional level. (TBF, my definition of “useful” would include at least a little breakdown by type, but the best the forecasters can manage is an over-all level with half a hint as to which types are likely to be highest.)
Here, we’ve had more rain in July so far than we had in the whole of May and June combined. The grounding for the long wire antenna in my garden has improved markedly in the last week.
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It has, and it is.
Currently horizontal rain, cold (heating is on in the house) and leaves being blown off the trees.
Guess it’s late October
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i like metcheck.com its usually pretty accurate. for specific hills it only has a relatively small list. but its accurate for the areas it has.
windy.com is also good
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