The paper Ed references is more circumspect with an uncertainty of 1 year on when the next peak will occur. The predicted sunspot count is 118 at the peak also with an uncertainty. The last time I saw a 100% claim it was on a bottle of snake oil.
There are a couple more things that I am uneasy about.
Sunspot count is a rubbery measurement. Just look at how it is constructed. It’s full of assumptions and estimated corrections. Ugh! The microwave solar flux has a better basis in terms of a proper measurement.
A solar cycle of 11 or so years is a nonsense as has been pointed out before by more qualified people. The cycle is about 22 years, the time it takes for the direction of motion of the sunspots to repeat.
Finally, outside of astrology, I am unconvinced that the alignment of the planets affects much at all. Brian may differ. For example the Earth’s tides may be affected by the alignment of the planets by up to 0.01%, principally by Venus but that is not measurable given the normal fluctuations in tide heights. The effect of sun spots is measurable so I await further investigations by solar physicists. The answer lies in the Sol as Arthur Fallowfield almost said.
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